Advanced mathematical modeling and prognosication of regulated spatio-temporal dynamics of Monkeypox

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• M. Baroudi ^{1, 2}
• I. Smouni ^{3, 2}
• H. Gourram ^{4, 2}
• A. Labzai ^{5, 6}
• M. Belam ^{3, 2}

¹ Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC Research Team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologie,Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco.

² Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Khouribga Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco.

³ Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC Research Team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologie

⁴ 1Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC Research Team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologie

⁵ 2Laboratory of Analysis Modeling and Simulation, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science

⁶ Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco.

10.22067/ijnao.2024.89077.1484

Abstract

This study explores a continuous spatio-temporal mathematical model to illustrate the dynamics of Monkeypox virus spread across various regions, considering both human and animal hosts. We propose a comprehensive strategy that includes awareness campaigns, security measures, and health interventions in areas where the virus is prevalent. The goal is to reduce transmission between humans and animals, thereby decreasing human infections and eradicating the virus in animal populations. Our model, which integrates spatial variables, accurately reflects the geographical spread of the virus and the impact of interventions, followed by the implementation and analysis of an applicable optimal control problem. Optimal control theory methods are applied in this work to demonstrate the existence of optimal control and the necessary conditions for optimality. We conduct numerical simulations using MATLAB with the forward-backward sweep method, revealing the efficiency of strategies focused on protecting vulnerable populations, preventing contact with infected individuals and animals, and promoting the use of quarantine facilities as the most effective means to control the spread of the Monkeypox virus. Additionally, the study examines the socio-economic impacts of the virus and the benefits of timely intervention. This approach provides valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials in managing and controlling the spread of Monkeypox.

Keywords

• Monkeypox
• Optimal control
• Spatio-temporal model
• Mathematical model
• optimization

Main Subjects

• Optimal Control

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